2020 Election Info

If the 2020 Presidential Election was Today Who Would Win? (DATA)

The 2020 Election is not only one of the most spendy elections to date, but it’s also one of the most technically advanced.

The Data

Likely voters spend on average more than 3 hours on their mobile phone every day – Democrats are slightly more mobile.

  • 58% of voters spend more than 3 hours on their mobile device daily:
  • 62% of democrats
  • 55% of republicans
  • 52% of independents

Mobile games are afoot this season…

  • Voters are mobile gamers – 1 out of 3 voters play mobile games every single day.

Streaming breaks through… voters are streamers – BIG TIME

  • 72% have at least one streaming subscription
  • Two-thirds subscribe to more than two
  • 77% of Democrats
  • 70% of Republicans
  • 65% of Independents

TV is not the dominant form of content consumption (sorry Bloomberg)

  • Average voters will watch 15.5 hours of live linear tv per week
  • They will watch 17.1 hours of streaming/online video per week
  • 50% of likely voters no longer have cable
  • Half of the independents have either cut the cord or never had it
  • Campaigns are slow to evolve tried and true methods
  • Despite voter migration away from linear TV, two-thirds of political ad dollars will still go to local and cable TV

Source: App AnalyticsThe Role Data Will Play in the 2020 Election

Now that we know most campaigns are missing the target (especially locally here with the Colorado parties), who would win?

According to Google, here’s how things would go down – at least if search interest was related to voter intent.

candidate search interest
12-Month Democratic Candidate Interest by Search

Blue: Klobuchar, Red: Bloomberg, Yellow: Sanders, Green: Biden
Purple: Buttigieg

According to the above search interest graph from Google Trends, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden have been going head-to-head with Sanders having a slight lead until Bloomberg passed both on Nov 3rd – 9th, 2019, and again Nov 24 – 30th, 2019 where he dropped to 3rd place. It appears that Bloomberg kicked up the advertising again around Jan 12/18th, and then a big push from Jan 26 to Feb 1st, resulting in Bloomberg surpassing all candidates with a slight edge over Sanders 100 to 94.

candidate search interest 2
2020 Democratic Search Interest in the past 24 hours from Feb 17, 2020

Blue: Klobuchar, Red: Bloomberg, Yellow: Sanders, Green: Biden
Purple: Buttigieg

Drilling down to the past 24 hours shows Sanders and Bloomberg neck-to-neck with a 3 point lead.

If the internet were to choose who the democratic nominee was today, it slightly favors Bloomberg over Sanders. This is interesting considering Bloomberg has yet to set foot on a debate stag–which shows the power of cash and advertising saturation. With everyone considered above, is it enough to beat Trump?

candidate search interest 3
Trump: RED — Bloomberg: BLUE

If the election was today, Trump would have a 21+ advantage over Bloomberg. Around the same time in 2016, Trump had a 15 point advantage over Hillary Clinton. Granted, Bloomberg’s financial arsenal is virtually endless, so these numbers can change quickly.

candidate search interest 4
Google Trends: Nov 8, 2016 – Trump vs Hillary Clinton showing 1+ pt advantage for Trump.

Historical search data shows Hillary Clinton making up 14+ pts in search interest (-1 pt from Trump trends) and losing the electoral college.

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO’D WIN?

TRUMP

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